As 401(k) participants feed on a steady diet of high volatility
since the crash of 2008, mounting evidence suggests that a market-driven
investment approach—what early adopters call tactical, active,
or adaptive asset allocation—should no longer be viewed as something
new or risky.
Rather, adaptive account portfolio management
is now an option that plan sponsors should seriously consider
introducing to their plan participants.
Rather than ignore market fluctuations as buy and hold, or modern
portfolio theory’s pie chart rebalancing formula would dictate,
an adaptive approach directs the investor to regularly reallocate
their funds according to the market’s actual movements, thus
leading to greater financial success in the long term. To be
sure, there was a time when such strategies were new to many,
but when the
Wall Street Journal chooses this style for critique,
financial bloggers and researchers (e.g.,
Adams, Philbrick and Gordillo), and organizations such as
the CFA Institute make a market-driven approach a standard option,
and major providers like TIAA begin offering adaptive asset
allocation style models to their clients, it might be time to
finally sit up and take notice.
Investment strategies which adapt to market trends, generally
called momentum theories, have been offered since the 1980s,
but by 2009, when Nobel Prize winning economist William Sharpe
published
Adaptive Asset Allocation Policies, the strengths of
this approach had finally become clear.
Two new studies involving an adaptive approach are especially
telling. According to a recent report by Invesco’s US Market
and Research Group,
Think Active Can't Outperform? Think Again, adaptive
asset allocation is in fact leading the field in performance.
In the first of their white papers comparing active versus passive
strategies, they found 61% of “high active share fund assets
beat their benchmarks,” while active management “significantly
outperformed” traditional cap-weighted portfolios in downside
capture, showing them “better able to weather negative return
environments.” Most important, “even after adjusting for risk,
actively managed portfolios performed better in aggregate.”
As part of a series dealing with major US mutual fund families,
a
Seeking Alpha study of a portfolio of three TIAA mutual
funds (one income fund and two equity funds), managed three
different ways—a buy and hold strategy, a typical target allocation
strategy, and adaptive reallocation strategy
[1],
—concluded that the adaptive approach “delivered stable returns,
with low volatility and low drawdown.” Measured even across
the major downturn of 2011—a challenging period for many active
investors—between 2010 and 2015, the adaptively managed portfolio
still outperformed the other two. Even more interesting than
its performance was the adaptive asset allocation strategy’s
inclusion in this review as a standard third option in their
comparison. Similar studies comparing performance of these now
three accepted investment strategies are planned for other major
fund groups.
Most important to realize now is that adaptive approaches
are part of the new normal for a broad range of savers in retirement
investing, and well worth the consideration of any 401(k) plan
sponsor for inclusion in their current or planned offering of
plan participant education and tools.